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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.